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Monday, December 13, 2010

Blow it up and start over: a draft recap gone awry.

After a week of crying myself to sleep, drinking myself into a stupor, and peeing my pants, I have started to come to grips with the fact that the NORTH Michigan Snow Flurries did not make the playoffs- and while I continue to rail against the schedule, the durability of my players, the conclusions of horoscopes, and the results of the lottery, the truth is that I may (possibly) have to accept a little (more) blame about the 4-9 record our team put up. This tale, then, is a tale about the drafting exploits of one man- and how much they sucked.

A comment about my preseason thoughts- my season thoughts- and my moving-forward thoughts. Also- did you see how I showed you how they would be distinguished- without actually telling you? Clever, huh?

Keepers-
RB Michael Turner-He got hurt last season, but there aren't many teams nowadays that have a bell-cow back- and Turner is one of those guys. After a slow start, Turner really picked up and had a very strong season for me. I'm not sure if he'll be a keeper for me again- but if I don't keep him, I'll definitely have to think about drafting him in the first round if I want him again. Grade: B+
QB Tony Romo-The Lord giveth...and, the Lord taketh away. Romo was having a really good season for me when he broke his collarbone in week 7 versus the Giants. I had some decent QB play the rest of the way- but not nearly at the level Romo was performing at. Definitely thinking about him as a keeper- but it'll depend on how he progresses in his recovery. Grade: Incomplete (A- for the games he completed)

Draft-
1- RB Ryan Grant
- Green Bay looks like they might have the best offense in the history of ever. While that certainly did not end up being the case (and it is here that I shall choose to gloat about the Lions 7-3 win over the Packers yesterday), it is also not the fault of Ryan Grant. And yet, it is probably his fault- because he didn't even make it out of the first game unscathed. Obviously you count on injuries throughout a football season- but this injury was simply devastating, and we never really recovered. I'd consider him with a mid-round pick- but no higher. Grade: Incomplete (Incomplete for the games he completed- because there was none).
2- WR Steve Smith (NYG)- I can't really afford to whiff with my #2 pick for 2 years in a row. I don't think I would classify this a whiff- but it wasn't an extra base hit either. Another case of the injury bug struck Smith at the midway point of the season- but even when he played, he was a 50/50 proposition (half of his games he didn't reach double digit points). Looking back, I realize that this was a reach. At least I had the best Steve Smith in the league though. That counts for something- right? I'd draft him again- he's an Eli Manning 3rd down favorite- but not before the 4th round. Grade: Incomplete (B- for the games he completed)
3- TE Jermichael Finley- This guy was banged up at times last year. When he was healthy? He was unstoppable. This guy was banged up at times this year. When he was healthy? He was unstoppable. The problem is- he spent every week after week 5 being banged up on Injured Reserve. Another guy I drafted too high- I'd draft him again, but with his injury history, it won't be nearly this high. Grade: Incomplete (A for the games he completed)
4- WR Michael Crabtree- I think that this guy is going to be a stud. I think this guy was a stub. Not quite a dud- he did have 5 double-digit point games, after all- but definitely not stud material. I don't want to give up completely on this guy- but man, I just don't know if the QB situation in San Francisco is going to help him reach the elite level anytime soon. Grade: C
5- WR Dwayne Bowe- If Bowe comes out and lays a goose-egg...then I will come back and edit this post. For the early part of the season, it looked like I was going to have to come back and eat some crow. 3 of his first 4 games were sub-5 pointers. And even the last 2 weeks have been stinkers. In between though? A magical run of 5 20-point outings in 7 games (including a pair of 30+ pointers) that really carried my team. Thanks for the memories Dwayne. A real candidate for a keeper position- but the last two weeks have me a little cautious. Grade: A-
6- RB Ronnie Brown- Possibly a reach...maybe too high to draft a running back that has an injury history. No, September Jason- definitely a reach. We just completed week 14, and Mr. Brown has racked up all of 2 double digit point games (high of 15). Unfortunately, I hadn't planned on Brown to play as big of a role as he did, due to injuries. Ronnie Brown will not be back with the Snow Flurries next season. Grade: D
7- Ravens Defense- Do they still have Ed Reed? If so, then they'll be awesome in the fantasy format. They did have Ed Reed, and they were a really good real defense- but unfortunately, they didn't force many turnovers or score many TDs, so for fantasy points, they were a much worse undertaking than the Arizona Cardinals D. No idea- because when you draft a defense, you're drafting an entire unit- there is so much that can change between now and then. Grade: D+
8- WR Mohammed Massaquoi- I have my starting WRs, so anything this guy gives me is gravy. Geez- he didn't even give me gravy. Not even the cheap powder stuff so that I could make my own gravy. Thanks for playing Mo- but no mo Mo. Grade: D-
9- QB Chad Henne- I'm not going to need Henne to be the second coming of Dan Marino...I just need him to not be the second coming of Ryan Leaf. Well, if this was a scale, Chad was closer to Leaf-territory than he was Marino. He did, however, have a solid outing or 2 for me, and I was later able to parlay him into Jay Cutler. Whatever that means. I'd take a flyer on him in later rounds- maybe. Grade: D+
10-RB Darren McFadden- I felt like I could take some flyers on guys that could potentially have some serious impact...or at the very least, put up acceptable stats for bad teams. Probably one of the best draft picks I've ever made- yes, even better than grabbing Bowe in Round 5. He simply exploded in 2010, setting himself up as an elite back who can affect games both on the ground and through the air. So obviously, I traded him away late in the season. For Steve Johnson. Ugh. I'm seriously hoping that the guy I traded him to doesn't decide to keep him- because I am definitely scoring him next year. Of course- he was hurt again this year for a spell- so maybe that's a red flag. Grade: A.
11-TE Dustin Keller- Whatever- I drafted him. And then I traded him. And I might draft him again. Or not. Grade: C-
12-Bears Defense- Hey, 2 games against the Lions should make this defense worth it, right? If I would have played this D more than I did, I might have won a couple more games (and thus made the playoffs). As it was, they were a very good unit for me. And that's taking into account that 2 of their lowest scoring games were against the Lions. See Ravens comment above. Grade: A
13-WR TJ Houshimanzada Meanwhile, a 13th round pick for a back-up WR is not much to spend on a guy that could end up starting and being a #2 receiver. Unfortunately, I didn't really keep him long enough to figure this out, because injuries and ineffectiveness started to wreak havoc on my season, and I absolutely needed to have someone to produce right away. Sorry TJ. Maybe next time. No seriously- maybe next time. You'll have a full offseason to hang with your Ravens buds, and I have no doubt that you're still a great receiver. Grade: Incomplete
14-K Lawrence Tynes- I just had to make sure that his name wasn't Nick Folk, and that he was in no way, shape, or form associated with or existed in a former life as Nick Folk. And he wasn't Nick Folk. What a great pick. I don't really put much thought into my kickers- as long as they aren't Nick Folk. Grade: B-
15-WR Donnie Avery- . Just perfect for my drafting philosophy. Ah yes. My drafting philosophy. While my 'drafting philosophy' scored me Darren McFadden, it also exposed the fact that I did not do any preparation at all heading into the season. Zero. I read no magazines or articles, watched no talking head commentary, scanned none of the injury reports. Looking back, I wonder- is this what the Matt Millen era was really like? I'll make you a deal, Donnie- you don't suffer a season-ending injury in the pre-season, and I will definitely consider drafting you. Grade: F- (Yeah, I know- incomplete- but I have to give myself an F- for drafting a guy that was already out for the year).
16-RB Jason Snelling- I figured I'd protect my investment a little bit. And my investment protection just sat there on the bench- looking all investment protecty, except for the 2 games where he blatantly outscored Turner and reminded me that he existed. You'd look really nice on my transaction register next year, Jason- as a 16th round pick to protect my investment. Grade: D

Overall, I had a pretty rough draft. I picked many guys rounds ahead of their value. I know that this stuff is all hind sight- but still, I think that my lesson is learned. I know it's ridiculous to buy tons of Fantasy Football magazines and try to memorize offensive coordinators tendencies in the red zone for home games indoors, but a little bit of prevention surely has to be worth it's weight in cure.

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